Crippling Snow or None At All, Which East Texas Forecast to Trust

Another Arctic Blast For East Texas

You've heard about the second Arctic Blast of the new year by now. It's heading this way, and in East Texas, we should start feeling its effects by Sunday afternoon.

All weather models I've seen are in agreement. East Texas from Texarkana to Houston will only reach highs in the 30s next Monday and Tuesday.

But what about wintry precipitation? This is where the weather models are NOT in agreement. Plus, those computer-generated scenarios tend to change 1-2 times every day.

(Hudson, Texas...Winter 2021)

East Texas Snowfall Outlook

Let's take a look at what five weather models are predicting when it comes to snowfall in East Texas by Tuesday evening. It's important to note that it's currently noon on Wednesday, January 15. These models will change. A link is provided to each Tuesday evening model scenario so that you can get updated outlooks.

GFS (Global Forecast System) 

Wintry precipitation will NOT have much of an impact on most of the eastern third of Texas. The exception appears to be areas in southeast Texas.

A swath of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain could occur from the Texas Hill Country near San Antonio eastward along the I-10 Corridor to the Louisiana border. Snowfall totals could reach 1-2 inches.

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

This European is more aggressive when it comes to the possibility of snow and ice in eastern Texas.

2-3 inches of snow could be widespread in parts of the Pineywoods, especially in an area bounded by Henderson to Madisonville to Lake Houston and back to Toledo Bend. The heaviest snowfall is indicated between Alexandria and Baton Rouge.

Freezing rain could also be a major issue further south as Tuesday's temperatures are not expected to get above freezing as far south as Galveston.

(East Texas, Winter 2021)

ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic)

This German-based weather model is predicting (at least, for now) that southeast Texas, from Lufkin to the Golden Triangle will bear the brunt of the wintry precipitation. Up to two inches of snow could fall from Angelina County southward to Houston, with the Beaumont/Lake Charles area getting nearly 6 inches of snow.

The I-10 Corridor from Katy through Louisiana could be a mess with temperatures expected to stay below 32 degrees.

UKMO (United Kingdom Met Office)

This weather model seems to shift the snowfall potential a bit to the north of the other models. Lufkin to Tyler to Shreveport looks to have a shot at receiving 2-3 inches of snowfall. Heavier amounts are expected from Shreveport to Monroe.

Freezing precipitation could also be a problem further south, depending on where Tuesday's freezing line will occur.

GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model)

Let's hope this Canadian-based model is way off base. The GEM is forecasting that much of Texas, from Dallas to Beaumont to Texarkana could be blanketed with 5 inches of snow by Tuesday evening.

A swath from Palestine to Rusk to Mt. Enterprise to Carthage might GET OVER A FOOT of snow. Could this be a repeat of the East Texas Winter of 2021?

Which Computer Model Will Be Correct?

The answer is maybe none of them, or perhaps portions of several of them. We are still nearly a week away from these outlooks and that's considered quite a long time when it comes to pinpointing the forecast.

For now, the official forecast from the National Weather Service in Shreveport is calling for a chance of snow for Lufkin/Nacogdoches on Monday night and Tuesday. Less than an inch is expected...but, once again, this forecast could change (and will) for the better or worse.

The Physics of Weather

When I went to Texas A&M for meteorology many years ago, I thought it was quite a paradox that something based so much on science could be so inexact. But, that's just the nature of the beast.

Somebody once painted this football analogy for me when it comes to predicting the weather using atmospheric physics.

A punter is trying to kick the ball out of bounce to pin the opposing team deep in their own territory. The football bounces high at the ten-yard line near the sideline. Now, using physics and math, try to determine by what you see if the ball will go out of bounds, stop before the end zone, or go into the end zone.

Numerous variables come into play: the speed of the rotation of the ball, direction of the rotation, forward velocity of the ball, angle of the oblong football when it bounced, and then re-evaluating once the ball bounced again.

These are just a few of the variables in play, and the more time that passes, the harder it will be to predict where the ball will go.

So...when it comes to whether is in line for a major snowfall next week, this might be your best 'go-to' for now.