It’s been one month since a tropical system has impacted the mainland U.S., but that may change this weekend.

Tropical Storm Imelda was a storm that gave way to a lot of rain and gusty winds for southeast Texas, including some rain for us here in East Texas. That storm lasted from September 17 until September 19. It was the tenth named storm of the season, a season that appears to be on track with the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

In early August, the seasonal outlook was updated and upgraded to indicate 10 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 of which would be hurricanes, and 2 to 4 of which would be major hurricane of Category 3 or higher. So far this year we’ve seen 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

So the last month it would seem was quiet, but it turns out there have been three named storms, including one hurricane. But these storms have been well out in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Karen left impacts in the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in late September, Hurricane Lorenzo stayed on the eastern half of the Atlantic in late September and early October, and Tropical Storm Melissa formed off the east coast of the U.S. but didn’t really strengthen until it moved east over the central Atlantic. This was just a few days ago.

But over the coming days, we’ll be watching for a storm to potentially form in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm, if it does develop, will likely give way to gusty winds and heavy rains over the southeast U.S. This storm will likely miss East Texas.