ECLIPSE OR NOT: Texas Cloud Cover Forecasts from 5 Weather Models

What We Know About the Solar Eclipse

On Monday, April 8, with 100% certainty, a total solar eclipse will occur in the skies above Texas. This swath will include cities such as Del Rio, Kerrville, Waco, Dallas, Tyler, and Texarkana.

What We Don't Know About the Solar Eclipse

What we CAN'T say with 100% certainty is how many eclipse gazers in this path will be able to view this astronomical rarity due to cloud cover. But, according to the mid-range forecasts from five different computer models, it's not looking very promising right now.

This satellite shot from Saturday, March 30 could be comparable to the view on April 8.

The Global Forecast System (North American-based), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Global Environmental Multiscale Model (Canadian-based), Access G (Australian-based), and Japan Meteorological Agency have all released cloud coverage forecasts for April 8.

Here's the 1 p.m. Cloud Coverage Forecasts for the Texas Total Eclipse Path

GFS - at least 90% cloud coverage from Del Rio to Texarkana

ECMWF - At least 90% cloud coverage from Del Rio through central Texas. 90% or better through much of northeast Texas, but some pockets of 50-60% cloud coverage.

GEM - About 50-70% cloud coverage from Del Rio through near Waco. A little better outlook from Dallas to Texarkana with 30-50% cloud coverage.

ACC - 90% or better cloud coverage for most of the total eclipse area of Texas. Perhaps a few more breaks in the clouds between Austin and Dallas.

JMA - 20-50% cloud coverage from Del Rio through the Texas Hill Country. 60-90% cloud coverage from Waco and Dallas northeastward to Texarkana.

The Good News and The Bad News

The good news is that we are still better than a week away from the event. Mid-range forecasts are known to change quite a bit as the forecast time approaches.

The bad news is that five different models are all in agreement that widespread cloud coverage and precipitation should occur through the afternoon of April 8.

Depending upon your location, the total eclipse is expected to last anywhere from a minute to nearly five minutes. Even if you are fortunate enough to get a partly cloudy sky, you could be at the mercy of a passing cumulus.

Millions of Texas residents will be looking skyward on April 8, and so will millions more who will have traveled to the totality path. Here's hoping Mother Nature gives them a good view.